10 June, 2024

Friday's fate was decided by the employment report.

I would like to point out to those who think that the cryptocurrency market is all about cycles, SMA 200 crossings, smart money, etc. Look at Friday, the US jobs report comes out better than expected and the cryptocurrency market starts to fall that very minute. Macroeconomics are important along with other market factors.

The BTC ETF continues to see inflows of over $100 million on Friday, too long a streak of positive inflows and outflows. Statistically we should see an outflow day soon, I think Monday or Tuesday.

Let's find out what happened in the traditional economy that brought the market down so much.

The Nonfarm Payroll report came out very strong against the best forecasters in the world of the US labour market, Goldman Sachs (I found two studies comparing the forecasts of different investment houses and then separately checked the Goldman Sachs data with a simple bot comparing forecast and actual data). So if you focus on Goldman Sachs specifically for the US labour market, you will get data much closer to the actual data.

Analysts and the US press are unanimous in pointing out how odd the report was, with the number of new jobs rising and unemployment rising at the same time.

However, investors clearly interpreted the report as a negative and a signal to the Fed that the market is still overheating. Market expectations are now for a Fed rate cut in November 2024.

Solana again overtakes BSC and Ethereum (excluding Layer-2) in terms of trading volume. Meme coins remain a major magnet for speculators.

Money continues to flow into DeFI: the market is at its highest level in 15 months.

I won't return to active buying until Wednesday. There will be a report on inflation and the Fed. Before Wednesday, another wave of declines is possible and it is also likely to continue at current levels.